KUALA LUMPUR — The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has released an assessment suggesting that the Covid-19 pandemic likely originated from a laboratory. However, the agency noted it has “low confidence” in this conclusion, indicating a lack of conclusive evidence.
The report, published on Saturday, did not rely on new intelligence but was conducted at the request of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns, according to the Associated Press.
It was declassified on the orders of CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in on Thursday.
The assessment leans towards a lab-related origin as more probable than a natural one but acknowledges that the available evidence remains insufficient, inconclusive, or inconsistent. The CIA reiterated that both scenarios—a laboratory leak and natural transmission—are still plausible.
Earlier investigations into the origins of Covid-19 have been divided, with some pointing to a potential lab incident in Wuhan, China, while others propose the virus emerged naturally. Intelligence officials caution that the true origin may never be definitively established due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.
“The CIA continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible,” the agency stated in its latest assessment.
Rather than uncovering new evidence, the conclusion was based on further analysis of existing intelligence, scientific data on the virus, and the conditions of Chinese virology laboratories.
The origins of the pandemic remain a politically and scientifically contentious issue, with significant global implications. The virus caused widespread lockdowns, economic upheaval, and millions of deaths. Lawmakers have urged US intelligence agencies to provide more clarity on the matter.
Republican Senator Tom Cotton, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, welcomed the CIA’s assessment, stating, “I’m pleased the CIA concluded in the final days of the Biden administration that the lab-leak theory is the most plausible explanation.”
He praised Ratcliffe for declassifying the report, adding, “Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world.”
China’s embassy in Washington has yet to respond to requests for comment. In the past, Beijing has dismissed lab-leak claims, describing them as politically motivated and unhelpful. Chinese officials have maintained that they support scientific research into Covid-19’s origins and accused the United States of politicising the issue.
While scientists generally agree that many coronaviruses originate in bats, it is believed the virus could have infected an intermediary species, such as raccoon dogs or civet cats, before reaching humans at a Wuhan wet market in late November 2019. Nonetheless, investigations have raised questions about whether the virus might have accidentally escaped from a Wuhan laboratory.
Two years ago, a report by the US Department of Energy concluded that a lab leak was the most likely origin, though it too expressed low confidence in this finding. Similarly, former FBI Director Christopher Wray previously stated that his agency believed the virus “most likely” resulted from a lab incident.
Ratcliffe, who also served as Director of National Intelligence during Donald Trump’s presidency, has openly supported the lab-leak hypothesis, stating in 2023, “The lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence, and common sense.”
The CIA has pledged to continue reviewing new information that could shed further light on the origins of Covid-19.
According to Reuters, the agency had for years refrained from reaching a conclusion on whether the virus stemmed from a lab incident or natural origins. However, in the final weeks of the Biden administration, Burns instructed analysts and scientists to provide a definitive assessment, highlighting the pandemic’s historical importance.
Despite the CIA’s recent statement, it remains unclear whether any new intelligence contributed to its findings. Meanwhile, China continues to reject the lab-leak theory, describing such claims as lacking credibility.
In a recent interview, Ratcliffe said his priority upon taking office was to ensure the CIA made a public assessment of the pandemic’s origins. “That’s a day-one thing for me,” he ssaid.
“I’ve been on record as you know in saying I think our intelligence, our science, and our common sense all really dictate that the origins of Covid was a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.” – January 26, 2025