KUALA LUMPUR – Pakatan Harapan (PH) would need to gain 36% of Malay votes in the Sg Bakap constituency to have a chance of winning the upcoming by-election this Saturday, according to a Selangor-based think tank.
Datuk Mohammad Redzuan Othman of Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) said that obtaining this percentage of Malay votes is the “first condition” for PH to secure the Penang state assembly seat.
The coalition lost the seat in the 2023 Penang elections after securing only 32% of Malay votes there, the think tank’s executive chairman noted.
“The second condition is solid support from Indian voters in three voting districts – Sg Bakap, Puteri Gunong and Ladang Sempah.
“(The third condition) is maintaining the support of the Chinese voters,” said Redzuan during a presentation on the findings of a survey conducted by IDE on Sg Bakap voter perception.
Redzuan also said PH could win the by-election with a majority of just over 2,000 votes if voter turnout falls within the 60 to 65% range – with Malay voter turnout at 69%, followed by Indians (62%) and Chinese (60%).
To achieve this, PH would need to secure 36% of Malay votes, 77% of Indian votes, and 82% of Chinese votes.
The survey, which involved 786 respondents selected through stratified random sampling, was conducted over four days from June 19 to 22, which coincided with the nomination day.
Rise in support for PH among Malay voters
Additionally, Redzuan highlighted that the survey revealed a 63.5% support rate among Barisan Nasional (BN) voters in Sg Bakap for PH candidate Joohari Ariffin.
This marks a 3.9% increase compared to the 59.6% of BN voters who supported the PH candidate in last year’s state election.
However, Redzuan also noted that the survey found 27% of BN voters support Perikatan Nasional (PN), a slight increase of 2% from the 25% of BN voters who backed PN in the previous election.
The by-election will see a straight fight between Joohari and PN candidate Abidin Ismail.
It was prompted by the death of former assemblyman Nor Zamri Latiff on May 24.
In the Penang state election held last August, Nor Zamri, who was also Nibong Tebal PAS chief, defeated PH candidate Nurhidayah Che Rose of PKR by a majority of 1,563 votes in a straight contest.
There are 39,279 registered voters in Sg Bakap, comprising 39,222 regular voters and 57 police personnel.
Sg Bakap consists of 59.36% Malay voters, 22.54% Chinese, 17.39% Indian, and 0.71% from other ethnic groups. – July 3, 2024