Pakatan’s Kuala Kubu Baharu victory thanks to sympathy votes, Umno machinery: analysts

The legacy of the much admired Lee Kee Hiong, whose passing triggered the by-election, served as an effective rallying cry for the ruling coalition

9:00 AM MYT

 

KUALA LUMPUR – Much of Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) win in Kuala Kubu Baharu can be attributed to the good work that the late assemblywoman, Lee Kee Hiong, did for nearly 11 years.

A substantial portion of voters might have cast “sympathy votes” for DAP’s Pang Sock Tao in hopes of her continuing Lee’s legacy, according to Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia.

“Sympathy votes are quite common in elections of this nature. Despite the low voter turnout, it seems like the PH-Barisan Nasional (BN) pact managed to get more of its supporters to vote,” the political analyst told Scoop.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Azmil Tayeb says sympathy votes are a natural part of elections of this kind. – Instagram pic, May 12, 2024

As part of her campaign, Pang had attended two memorial events for Lee, whose death on March 21 due to ovarian cancer triggered the by-election.  

One of the events, held just two days before polling day, saw the attendance of about 200 people, including key party figures such as adviser Tan Sri Lim Kit Siang, secretary-general Anthony Loke and Selangor chairman Gobind Singh Deo. 

They often referenced Lee’s contributions to the Kuala Kubu Baharu community, urging voters to allow DAP to continue the people-centric initiatives she had implemented. 

In a statement following Pang’s victory, Selangor Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminudin Shari said DAP’s success in retaining the seat was an acknowledgement of Lee’s service for the area, which she had wrested from MCA by more than 1,700 votes during the 2013 election. 

Lee had defended the seat in 2018, beating closest contender MCA by 7,134 votes, before going on to secure a 4,119-vote majority against Gerakan during the state election last August. 

Azmil also said that Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) failure to disrupt the status quo could be a signal of the Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin-led coalition’s failure to offer concrete policy recommendations on bread and butter issues. 

He also posited that voters could have been put off by the opposition coalition’s “exclusive focus on sentiment-driven issues”. 

While PN’s candidate, Khairul Azhari Saut of Bersatu, had not directly issued any particularly sensational statements himself, a number of PAS figures had raised eyebrows due to their controversial takes on certain topics. 

This includes PAS information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shari’s assertion that voters should bear in mind candidates’ educational background, claiming that Pang’s enrollment in a vernacular primary and secondary school should concern voters as she was part of an “exclusive educational stream”.

PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang had also drawn flak for his fiery remarks during a PN ceramah event, where he said it is “wajib” (mandatory) for Kuala Kubu Baharu’s Muslim constituents to vote for a fellow Muslim leader

He also labelled DAP as an extremist party, claiming that PAS’ once-ally has an agenda to gain political power through conniving measures. 

We couldn’t have done it without you: Umno great contributor to DAP’s win 

Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia lecturer Mazlan Ali said increased support for DAP from Malay voters should be attributed to Umno’s efforts during the campaign period.

He added that DAP’s win, buoyed by Umno’s presence throughout the campaign trail, signified that the unity government’s machinery managed to effectively gather its forces. 

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia lecturer Mazlan Ali says Umno’s election machinery helped tip the scales in PH’s favour. – Bernama file pic, May 12, 2024

“Umno’s campaigning and work on the ground was convincing (as) they were really working hard to secure a win for the PH candidate in Kuala Kubu Baharu,” he told Scoop. 

“This shows that the cooperation between parties in the unity government is improving and managed to be translated to a win in the by-election.” 

Mazlan also theorised that PN’s loss by nearly 4,000 votes could be due to how people are tired of endless politicking and are instead hoping that the government focus on efforts to improve the nation as well as the people’s wellbeing. 

With a 61.51% voter turnout, Pang garnered a 3,869-vote majority over Khairul, who managed to secure 10,131 (41.4%) votes against Pang’s 14,000 (57.2%). 

Independent candidate Nyau Ke Xin and Parti Rakyat Malaysia’s Hafizah Zainuddin both lost their deposits after collecting 188 (0.8%) and 152 (0.6%) votes, respectively. – May 12, 2024

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