KUALA LUMPUR – Even though DAP gained an 8% increase in support among Malay voters from 2022 to 2023, 80% of Malay voters who previously supported Barisan Nasional (BN) switched to Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the 2023 state elections.
The findings are part of former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming’s paper titled “Scrutinising the DAP’s success in the 2023 Malaysian state elections”.
He also found the average support for PN in the DAP-contested seats increased from 13.1% in the 2022 general election to 19.2% in the 2023 state elections.
“Four out of five Malay voters who previously supported BN in these seats voted for PN in the 2023 state elections. Clearly, more of the Malay votes that previously supported BN went to PN than to Pakatan Harapan (PH).
“Going forward, DAP’s stranglehold over its seats may well become weaker, due to demographic changes, and if turnout and support for PH and the DAP should decrease among non-Malay voters,” Ong said in his executive summary.
His report is based on granular polling station and polling stream data for 47 seats contested by PH component DAP.
DAP also gained a 2% increase in Chinese support from 2022 to 2023.
Ong said working with BN linchpin Umno allowed DAP to win by comfortable margins in some of what would usually be considered marginal seats for the party.
“The increase in support for DAP was highest in Negri Sembilan, at 6.7%, followed by Selangor at 5.2%, Penang (4.3%) and Kedah at 1.4%.
“In general, DAP gained the largest transfer of Malay votes from older voters who show stronger allegiance to BN. These findings show that Umno’s grassroots outreach is still somewhat effective among older voters but much less so among younger voters.”
Last year, PN won all 32 seats in Terengganu, 43 out of 45 seats in Kelantan, 33 out of 36 in Kedah, while the bloc won 11 out of 40 seats in Penang, Negri Sembilan (5 out of 36 seats), and Selangor (22 out of 56 seats). – April 9, 2024