KUALA LUMPUR – The World Health Organisation’s (WHO) cancer agency predicts there will be 35 million new cancer cases globally by 2050, a 77% rise compared to the 2022 statistics.
According to Al Jazeera, a survey conducted by WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) cited tobacco, alcohol, obesity, and air pollution as key factors in the predicted rise.
“Over 35 million new cancer cases are predicted in 2050,” the IARC said in a statement, a 77% increase from the some 20 million cases diagnosed in 2022.
“Certainly the new estimates highlight the scale of cancer today and indeed the growing burden of cancer that is predicted over the next years and decades,” head of cancer surveillance at the IARC, Freddie Bray, said.
The IARC said there were an estimated 9.7 million cancer deaths in 2022, according to a statement alongside its biannual report based on data from 185 countries and 36 cancers.
Around one in five people develop cancer in their lifetimes, with one in nine men and one in 12 women dying from the disease, it added.
“The rapidly-growing global cancer burden reflects both population ageing and growth as well as changes to people’s exposure to risk factors, several of which are associated with socioeconomic development.
“Tobacco, alcohol, and obesity are key factors behind the increasing incidence of cancer, with air pollution still a key driver of environmental risk factors,” the IARC said.
Lower-income burden
The IARC has underscored that the risk of cancer is contingent upon the geographical location of the patient.
The most economically developed nations are anticipated to witness the most significant surge in cancer cases, with a projected additional 4.8 million new cases in 2050 compared to the estimates from 2022, according to the agency.
Conversely, when examining the percentage increase, countries positioned at the lower end of the human development index (HDI), utilised by the United Nations as an indicator of societal and economic advancement, are poised to experience the most substantial proportional rise, amounting to a 142% increase.
Meanwhile, nations falling within the medium range of the HDI are forecast to register a 99% upswing, as stated by the agency.
“One of the biggest challenges we are seeing is that the proportional increases in the cancer burden are going to be most striking in the lower-income, lower-human-development countries.
“They are going to see a projected increase of well over doubling of the burden by 2050.
“And these are very much the countries that are currently ill-equipped to really deal with the cancer problem. And it’s only going to get bigger, and there are going to be more patients in cancer hospitals in the future,” Bray added.
He said that although there are more than 100 different cancer types, the top five cancers account for about 50% of cases.
“Lung cancer is the most common cancer worldwide, particularly in men, whereas breast cancer is certainly the most common cancer in women,” he said.
The IARC also said different types of cancer are now increasingly affecting populations as lifestyles change.
For example, colorectal cancer is now the third most common cancer and second in terms of deaths.
Colorectal cancer is linked particularly to age as well as lifestyle factors like obesity, smoking, and alcohol use.
“There should be a lot more investment in the early diagnosis and screening (of cancer). There should be a lot more investment in preventing the disease as well as in palliative care for people who are suffering,” he said. – February 2, 2024