KUALA LUMPUR – A high voter turnout in the upcoming state elections could play significantly in favour of the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional coalition, said political analysts.
Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said that this is highly possible if the electoral roll present on polling day were predominantly non-Malays.
Based on voter turnout statistics of the 15th general election (GE15) last November, Azmil said PH’s victory was made possible by ballots from more than 90% of Chinese and Indian voters.
“When you look at past elections, high voter turnout had always benefited them (PH). So, there is a possibility of a repeat of events.
“I think (for the state elections) it is incumbent upon PH to fire up their voters to cast their votes,” Azmil told Scoop.
However, he said the chances of a high turnout could also depend on people returning to their hometowns to vote, especially for states such as PAS-led Kelantan.
“In Kelantan, PAS is highly dependent on the Kelantanese (people) to come back to vote and they have been doing an effective job in getting these people to do so.
“It is the same in Kedah.”
Recently, checks by Scoop on the ground showed that most out-of-state voters appear to be reluctant to return to their constituencies to vote.
Azmil also shared the same sentiment, suggesting that voters were already tired of politics.
“We have been hearing a lot about election fatigue. Some people are not bothered by the state elections because they are reluctant to travel home again to vote,” he said
“The voter turnout is always lower for the state elections compared to the general election.
I think we could expect about 60% turnout for the state elections.”
Meanwhile, University Malaya political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi told Scoop that political literacy among the younger generation could play a big role in voter turnout and sway towards a certain coalition.
Of the total 9.7 million voters heading to the ballot box on August 12 to elect 245 state representatives, more than half are below the age of 40.
Those groups, said Awang Azman include young voters with low political literacy.
As such, he said reaching out to the younger generation who are mostly avid social media users, is crucial.
“Over four million are voters below the age of 40 years old, including new voters who are low in political literacy and are not loyal towards any coalition.
“Political literacy could also be influenced by their (party candidates) campaign method via various social media platforms.
“Social media will play a crucial role on August 12. The strength of the candidate relies on their social media presence and their influence on the younger generation.
“However, if their political literacy is low, they could just take everything at face value without understanding the general context of the country’s political landscape,” he said.
GE15 recorded a 74.04% voter turnout from about 21 million eligible voters.
It was lower than the turnout during GE14 in 2018, which saw an 82.32% turnout out of approximately 14 million registered voters.
The upcoming state elections involve a total of 9,773,571 eligible voters – Selangor has 3,747,057 voters, followed by Kedah (1,585,085), Kelantan (1,411,912), Penang (1,234,198), Terengganu (930,894) and Negri Sembilan (864,425). – August 8, 2023