KUALA LUMPUR – DAP-Pakatan Harapan (PH) gained 10.3% more Malay support in Kuala Kubu Baharu in the state polls last August than it won in the 2022 general election, an analysis by the party’s Ong Kian Ming shows.
The state seat in Selangor is of current interest, with a by-election to be held on May 11 following the death of its incumbent Lee Kee Hiong on March 21.
The Malay vote, which counts for 46.4% of the seat’s total electorate of 40,015, will also be watched amid ongoing sentiments and racial rhetoric that began with socks bearing the word “Allah” sold by KK Mart and ensuing calls for a boycott of the convenience chain store.
Chinese, Indian and Orang Asli voters comprise 30.6%, 18% and 5% of the electorate, respectively. The seat is considered a marginal seat for DAP.
Lee’s win last August saw a higher conversion of Malay votes to DAP-PH in polling streams for older and elderly voters, than in polling streams for younger age groups, Ong said in his research paper.
The paper, “Scrutinising the DAP’s Success in the 2023 Malaysian State Elections”, was published by the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, where Ong, formerly Bangi MP, is senior visiting fellow, following his step back from active politics.
DAP-PH support from older voters
His analysis is based on granular data comparing results in polling streams for Kuala Kubu Baharu in the state polls last August, with the results from polling streams for the same seat which is under the Hulu Selangor parliamentary constituency in the 2022 general election.
Selangor and five other states did not hold state-level elections in 2022.
In the state polls last year, DAP won 55.7% of overall votes among Kuala Kubu Baharu’s electorate, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) won 37.9%.
This marked an increase from the 2022 general election by 7.5% for DAP. However, PN’s increased share was larger, by 10.5%.
DAP-PH’s share last August included a 41.6% transfer of Barisan Nasional (BN) votes, as by then both BN and PH were campaigning together as unity government allies, noted Ong, who was formerly deputy minister of international trade and industry.
In terms of Malay votes, DAP’s share increased 10.3% last August, compared to 2022.
Malay votes for the PH party were 11.8% in 2022 and increased to 22.1% last year.
However, support for DAP-PH came mostly from older voters, as seen from the breakdown of votes according to polling streams which are divided according to age, said Ong.
For example, in “saluran” or polling stream 1 in the Lembah Beringin polling station, where voters’ average age is 68, DAP-PH’s share of votes jumped from 54% in 2022 to 69% last August. The transfer of BN votes to PH here was 59%.
Likewise, in the Jalan Kuala Kali voting station in polling stream 1 where voters’ average age was 65.8 years old, DAP-PH’s share of votes increased from 54% in 2022 to 76% last year. The transfer of BN votes to PH here was 75.6%.
The opposition PN also recorded an increased share of votes, although at smaller percentages.
“Generally speaking, DAP gained the largest transfer of Malay votes in older polling streams where the allegiance to BN is still stronger compared to the younger polling streams,” said Ong.
Overall, however, Ong also noted that across the six states that held elections last August, 80% of Malay voters who previously supported BN had switched to PN, based on polling station and polling stream data in the 47 seats DAP contested.
While DAP gained an 8% increase in support among Malay voters from 2022 to 2023, PN’s gains were bigger with four out of five Malay voters switching support from BN to the opposition coalition, Ong said.
The campaign period for the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election is two weeks from nomination day on April 27. Early voting is set for May 7, followed by polling day four days later.
Lee was the seat’s assemblyman for three terms, first winning the MCA stronghold in 2013 by a margin of 1,702 votes.
She increased her margin to 7,134 in the 2018 general election, and in the state polls last August, beat the Gerakan-PN candidate by 4,119 votes. – April 13, 2024